Hageman's Popularity Has Many Uncertain If They’ll Run For Governor

 The race for Wyoming governor remains a wait-and-see contest as potential candidates hesitate to jump in without knowing what U.S. Rep. Harriett Hageman plans to do.

Only two people have declared to run for the Wyoming governor’s seat next year, though a third has filed a campaign finance account under the race and two more say they’re waiting to see whether Hageman plans to run.

Hageman, a Republican and Wyoming’s lone representative in the U.S. House of Representatives, is still considering whether she’d like to switch over to the state’s top executive office.

She demolished incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney in the 2022 Republican primary election and went on to take the federal legislative seat that November. She’s aligned with President Donald Trump on high-profile issues since then, and she also won her reelection bid with no serious resistance in 2024.  

A combination of the Hageman effect, the earliness of the campaign cycle and some frontrunners’ goals toward consolidating under one “conservative” candidate leaves next year’s gubernatorial field with several highly tentative characters.  

Unsurprisingly for a state with Republicans altogether controlling the executive branch and around 86% of the state Legislature, the names surfacing in polls at this stage all belong to Republicans.

The two who have declared their candidacy so far are Cheyenne resident Joseph Kibler, who runs a web development and marketing company, and 2022 candidate Brent Bien.

Bien was the first to announce his run this year. He grew up in Laramie and served in the Marines for 28 years. He retired to Wyoming in 2019 after finishing his military career as officer-in-charge of the U.S. Marine Corps base in Guam.

The Hageman Effect

Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray is “exploring” a governor’s run and has been “strongly encouraged to run,” he told Cowboy State Daily on Monday.

But he has no interest in running against Hageman, he told Cowboy State Daily’s Jake Nichols during the latter’s May 23 radio show.

“I want to see what her decision is, because I just have so much respect for her,” Gray said at the time. “I have no interest in any way of stepping on her toes, running against her or anything like that.”

If Gray runs, he’d like to continue to work to advance “President Trump’s America First, MAGA priorities,” he said in his Monday text in which he also touted “my track record of getting commonsense, conservative priorities done for the people of Wyoming.”

Consolidating That ‘Conservative’ Vote

Gray isn’t the only one avoiding a run against Hageman.

Wyoming Speaker of the House Chip Neiman, R-Hulett, told Cowboy State Daily on Monday that whether he runs “depends on what Harriet does.”

“And to me it is still early to be announcing,” he continued. “I personally would love to see her run for governor because I believe she would clear the field and give Wyoming eight solid years of conservative leadership.”

If too many “conservatives” run and Hageman doesn’t, it could split the vote against a less conservative frontrunner, Neiman said, listing that as a concern going into the election cycle.

Neiman rose to power on a staunch pro-life platform, guiding multiple anti-abortion bills into existence and pushing to intervene in a legal challenge against them.

Third Terms And The Court Dance

Incumbent Gov. Mark Gordon has not officially declared a run for his third term, with his spokesman on Monday emphasizing a remaining focus “on this term, and the work Wyoming’s people elected him to do.”

On paper, Wyoming law forbids the governor from holding a third term, but that might not be a difficult technicality to set aside.

In a 1992 ballot referendum, Wyoming voters enacted a term limits law for state public officials.

The Wyoming Supreme Court overturned that law as unconstitutional for members of the state Legislature in 2004 and again for the positions of state auditor, treasurer, superintendent of public instruction and auditor in 2013.

But no one challenged that law on the governor’s behalf at that time, so the high court didn’t address the law’s constitutionality at all for that office.

“Mark Gordon should run again,” state Sen. Cale Case, R-Lander, told Cowboy State Daily on Monday. “He’s experienced, he’s a very popular governor – he’s actually well thought of in the state. And I don’t think any of the alternatives will measure up.”

Gordon is not politically aligned with the Wyoming Freedom Caucus – which is a group of socially-conservative, oft-populist Republicans in the state legislature – whereas Gray is aligned with the group and Neiman is a rostered member.  

Just Stay Tuned

Neiman shares a noteworthy legacy with both Gordon and his predecessor Matt Mead: he’s a successful rancher.

So too is State Sen. Eric Barlow, R-Gillette, who also served as House Speaker from 2021 to 2022, is a Marine Corps veteran, and a longtime veterinarian.

Barlow was also still tentative Monday.

“I thank you for your interest, and there certainly is an ongoing discussion about whether it makes sense,” he told Cowboy State Daily while helping his sheep (which he raises along with cattle and yaks) toward fresh grazing areas. “And I think there’ll be something fairly soon in that realm.”

For now, Barlow continued, his focus is on developing legislation for his constituents. He’s working on two bills specifically: one in the health care field and another involving motor vehicle law, he added.

Barlow is not a Freedom Caucus member.

Wyoming Didn’t Need Trump For That Choice

Wyoming Superintendent Of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder joined the ranks of maybes on Monday, saying “Wyoming is the greatest state in the nation and needs bold innovate leadership to move her forward. I am committed to doing that in any way that the Lord has in store for me.”

For now, added Degenfelder, “I am focused on continuing to improve education outcomes for Wyoming students.”

Degenfelder often aligns with President Donald Trump’s education goals, such as removing the U.S. Department of Education – but even in pro-Trump Wyoming, she hasn’t needed his approval to succeed.

Degenfelder in 2022 won the Republican primary election against temporary, vacancy-filling incumbent Brian Schroeder, though Schroeder had Trump’s endorsement and Degenfelder did not.

She was the only Wyoming candidate in that primary to beat a Trump endorsee.

Degenfelder told Cowboy State Daily at the time that she would have been pleased to have Trump’s endorsement, but the opinion of the people of Wyoming mattered more to her.

She’s made headlines in recent weeks as a proponent of Wyoming’s newly-passed school-choice program, which is currently blocked by a judge’s order.

Mr. President

Senate President Bo Biteman, R-Ranchester, was likewise tentative in a Monday text message.

“I’m thinking about it but haven’t made any final decisions. I believe that decisions to run for public office should come from opportunities to do the most good for our state and our country,” he wrote. “I believe that I have more to offer the people of our great state, and I am keeping my eyes open for ways I can continue to best serve Wyoming.”

Not Discussing That Yet 

Though her name surfaced in a recent poll, state Sen. Cheri Steinmetz, R-Lingle, said entertaining political speculation at this juncture would be a disservice to her constituents.

She said she's trying to secure funding for the GID tunnel repair, and is "laser-focused on delivering real solutions in areas like energy, water infrastructure, and agricultural policy." 

The Noted Wyoming Outdoorsman

University of Wyoming trustee Paul Ulrich, a lifelong Wyomingite and Navy veteran who also serves as an executive of an oil and gas company, has been approached about running for the seat, he told Cowboy State Daily.

“I haven’t ruled it out,” Ulrich said in a Monday phone interview.

Ulrich is also former chairman of the Petroleum Association of Wyoming and of the Wyoming Energy Authority.

The Campaign Finance Account

Reid Rasner, who unsuccessfully challenged Wyoming’s senior Republican Sen. John Barrasso in 2024, filed a campaign finance account under the governor’s race category in June, but wasn’t ready to commit publicly to the race as of Monday.

“I’m actively exploring a campaign for governor of Wyoming,” Rasner told Cowboy State Daily. “I recently filed paperwork to establish an exploratory committee, and expect to make a decision in the coming weeks.”

Rasner also made headlines in February, when he told the public he was pitching a nearly $48 billion bid to buy Chinese social media platform TikTok – an effort that has since stalled.

The Possibles

Other possibles whose names surface in this discussion are Senate Majority Floor Leader Tara Nethercott, R-Cheyenne, Sen. Ogden Driskill, R-Devils Tower; and State Treasurer Curt Meier.

Those elected officials did not return Cowboy State Daily requests for comment by publication time.

And, The Polls

An internal poll conducted in late January pegged Hageman as the overwhelming favorite for governor, showing her at a 72% favorability rating in Wyoming.

Hageman advisor Tim Murtaugh told Cowboy State Daily in a Monday email that Hageman is “honored by the many Wyoming residents and elected officials who have urged her to consider running for governor, and that’s something she is certainly considering. Right now she is focused on getting wins for Wyoming in Congress.”

Secretary of State Chuck Gray commissioned a poll by the survey firm Fabrizio Lee, which showed him as the clear frontrunner in both a congressional and a governor’s race, doubling or more-than doubling Barlow, Bien, Nethercott, Meier, Neiman, Degenfelder, Biteman and Steinmetz.

The poll did not test Gray against Hageman.

Fabrizio Lee partner Tony Fabrizio served as the chief pollster on five presidential campaigns, including Trump’s 2016 and 2024 races.

Clair McFarland can be reached at clair@cowboystatedaily.com.