Where's The Snow? Cross-Country Skiers, Snowshoers Not Happy In Vedauwoo

Dana Gage frequently enjoys walking through the natural beauty of Vedauwoo in the Medicine Bow-Routt National Forest with his German shepherd, Klaus.  He and Klaus strolled through the popular southern Wyoming recreation area Thursday afternoon, which he found cold and concerning.

“It was 31 degrees with 50 mph wind gusts, but there wasn't a decent amount of snow on the trails or landscape,” he said. “No more than 2 inches, if anything, and it was light and dry. It is pretty dry up there this year.”

People who visit Vedauwoo in winter expect to need skis or snowshoes to traverse the terrain. At the beginning of 2025, the roads and trails are still cold but relatively clear of snow.

“I'd say this is one of the driest winters we've had in a very long time,” Gage said. “I’m trying to compare it to years gone by, but I can’t remember a comparable one.”

There are concerns about persistent dryness throughout the Rocky Mountain region this winter, from the fire-scarred face of the Bighorn Mountains to anxious ski resorts throughout Wyoming, Utah and Colorado. Where’s winter?

It’s here, even if it hasn’t manifested as massive snowfall across the Western states. At least, not yet.

Don’t Doubt The Dryness

Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day doesn’t deny that it’s dry across Wyoming and the Rockies. Vedauwoo is evidence of how little precipitation has fallen in southeastern Wyoming over the last few months.

“Precipitation averages in October, November, and December were below average in Cheyenne and Laramie,” he said. “The region just isn’t getting the storms needed to get snow in that area.”

The reason for the persistent dryness in southeast Wyoming is the same across the Rockies. Day said if there’s anything to blame, it’s the Pacific Ocean.

“The last two of three winters have been La Niña-dominated,” he said. “La Niña falls are warm and dry, and that carries over into the start of winter. We’ve had two of those years together, back and back, in 2023 and 2024.”

Wyoming occasionally experiences “big snow events” in September, October and November as a prelude to winter weather. However, those events didn’t happen in 2024, adding to the ongoing dryness at Vedauwoo and across the state.

The situation was much different at this point in 2023 when Wyoming experienced record-breaking snowfall that continued into one of the greenest and wettest years on record. Day said that, too, was the result of Pacific weather patterns.

“The cold, snowy winter of 2022-2023 was when we changed phases from a La Niña to an El Niño, and we saw the results of that,” he said. “If you want to blame anything, blame the Pacific. When the Pacific is cold, we have warm falls. That's all there is to it.”

History Says …

When Wyoming experiences a “mild” winter, Day defaults to the historical data he uses to compile his long-range forecasts. According to that data, he says January 2025 is pretty comparable to January 2024.

“I'm looking at snow conditions in the mountains and many areas from last December, and they’re very similar,” he said. “In fact, they were about the same.”

Day also cited one of his oft-stated mantras, also informed by Wyoming’s historical data.

“I know that I harp on this all the time, but the driest months of the year are December, January, and February, and there's very little difference between those three months,” he said. “Number one, they're not very wet on the plains, statistically. And number two, if they are wetter than normal, that's like saying you're the tallest elf in Santa's workshop.”

That doesn’t mean Wyoming is destined to be dry for the next two months. The long-range forecasts and weather patterns that Day and other meteorologists are monitoring look promising, and they follow historical precedents.

“I think there's an analogy to what happened last year and what will happen this year,” he said. “Once we got into the new year, we got back into winter. Snow returned, and it got much colder across the state.”

Fortunately, Day doesn’t have to rely on his hunches or expertise to make that prediction. Meteorological outlooks for the next several weeks are suggesting the same thing.

Incoming!

Day’s long-range forecast for the 2024-2025 winter season called for a warmer, drier end to 2024, followed by below-average temperatures and above-average snowfall in 2025. Weather modeling is giving him more confidence in his predictions.

“Everything I'm seeing shows above-average snowfall coming into the interior of the Western high plains for at least the next six to eight weeks,” he said. “I think that'll continue in March and April. I'm confident that the patterns are changing, and that will bring the precipitation to Wyoming.”

It’s more than a massive influx of wet weather. Day said the high-pressure system that’s had the Rockies in a dry stranglehold since last fall is finally starting to give way.

“The common theme, at least until recently, was a dominant west-to-east flow of the jet stream,” he said. “That west-east flow always eliminates good rainfall and snowfall east of the Continental Divide. That’s critical at places like Vedauwoo, which is in the last mountain range before the Great Plains”

The jet stream's flow is another phenomenon dictated by the ebb and flow of La Niña and El Niño. As the Pacific patterns transition, the jet stream's flow changes, which is good news for Wyoming’s winter.

Still, Day always reminds Wyomingites that the state’s moisture isn’t determined by how much snow we get in December, January, and February. The months that matter are still a long way off.

“Spring and early summer is when we get the bulk of our precipitation,” he said. “So yes, it’s bad right now in a lot of Wyoming. I know there are a lot of disappointed cross-country skiers and snowshoers up Vedauwoo who usually have plenty of snow for their activities by this point. But I'm confident that precipitation is coming.”

Still Vedauwoo

Gage said he was concerned but not surprised by the lack of snow in Vedauwoo. He sees it as an unfortunate continuation of a warming trend.

“I believe in climate science,” he said. “I know that changes are happening to our climate, and I think it's happening here locally, too.”

Fortunately, Vedauwoo is still Vedauwoo. Gage didn’t see much snow during his latest visit, but the landscape still has plenty of life-sustaining water and wildlife.

“There are a couple of tributaries of the Crow Creek that run through the area, and we're lucky that those are continuously supplied,” he said. “If we did not have that, we'd be in much more trouble. But there’s plenty of water and wildlife, and the moose population is exploding.”

Day reassured outdoor recreation enthusiasts that they’ll get the snow and subzero temperatures they want. The transition from a warm, dry La Niña to a cold, wet El Niño takes time, but all signs suggest it’s happening.

“We have to let the Pacific go through these changes," he said. "That's starting now, and other pattern changes will continue into the New Year, which will make things different. “We are changing phases and will get our winter.”

Andrew Rossi can be reached at arossi@cowboystatedaily.com.