Wyoming Closely Watching Pivotal U.S. Senate Race In Montana

Editor's note: Political reporter Leo Wolfson is on assignment in Montana covering the U.S. Senate race.

BILLINGS, Mont. — When it comes to U.S. Senate races this year, there are none more pivotal than the matchup between Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy in Montana.

In Wyoming, this close battle being waged by its northern neighbors has major implications.

Sheridan County borders Montana and is less than two hours by car from Montana's largest city of Billings. Because of this proximity, the two states regularly trade visitors and are tied to each other economically to some degree.

Many people in northern Wyoming towns like Sheridan and Cody will frequently drive across the border into Montana to make big purchases and take advantage of there being no sales tax in Montana.

“We pay a lot of attention to what’s going on because it does impact us,” said Sheridan County GOP Chair Bryan Miller, who spoke to Cowboy State Daily on Tuesday while in Billings. “You just go right across the border and there’s no sales tax, so a lot of people go up and go shopping.

“What goes on in Montana does impact what goes on in Wyoming.”

Conversely, Miller said many Montana residents come for Sheridan’s 3rd Thursday street festivals during the summer months.

Miller is paying close attention to the Tester-Sheehy race.

“I would love to see Republicans take that seat,” he said. “It’s been a long time coming. I think Montana is moving back toward their conservative roots.”

Similarly watching is the Sheridan County Democratic Party, which has a link to donate to the Tester campaign on its website. The county party chair, Martha Wright, said it’s important that Tester win.

“I absolutely support Senator Tester and think it would be a shame for America to lose the only working farmer in the U.S. Senate,” Wright said. “He embodies the values we hold dear as Wyomingites- hard work, integrity, and independence.”

Delegation Also Watching

U.S. Cynthia Lummis supports Sheehy’s campaign and said she and Sen. John Barrasso, both Wyoming Republicans, recently did some fundraising efforts with Sheehy in Wyoming.

“With Montana so near and dear to us in Wyoming, it’s an important topic for people to consider,” Lummis said.

U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman also told Cowboy State Daily that she sees many similarities between Montana and Wyoming, pointing out the millions of acres of public lands and significant energy production in both Western states.

“Really the big picture is, we need the Senate to protect the West to undue the terrible terrible policies that have been coming out of the Biden and Harris administration and that’s why this race is so incredibly important,” she said.

Despite their sizable population differences, Wyoming and Montana have the same amount of Senate representation at two members, like all states.

Montana and Wyoming politics have some distinct differences however, the biggest being money. According to the Montana Free Press, political action committees have invested more than $44 million in the Tester-Sheehy race.

Montana also has two blue-leaning college towns, both of which are much larger than Laramie, home to the University of Wyoming.

National Focus

The biggest impact of all for people in Wyoming are some of the national implications of the Tester-Sheehy race.

With Republicans likely to gain a seat in West Virginia with former Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin stepping down, it puts the Senate at a 50/50 deadlock.

A Tester win would retain control for the Democrats if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, as the vice president issues the tiebreaker vote in the chamber. If Sheehy wins and/or former President Donald Trump wins the presidential election, power will swing to the Republicans.

The House is seen by many political analysts as a tossup that could swing in either direction. Republicans now hold a nine-seat advantage there.

Hageman said gaining the Senate would be monumental to getting more Republican legislation passed into law. Many of the bills passed in the House over the last two years were stonewalled once reaching the upper chamber..

Over the past few years, there has been a noticeable increase in the attention paid to national politics in America, with many drawing clear lines of connection between national and local politics.

Miller believes this has been a positive and led to more involvement in local politics.

“There’s the old saying that ‘all politics is local,’ and it’s true,” Miller said. “They’re seeing what’s happening with their tax money and there’s a lot of things they don’t like about it.”

Hageman believes the federal government has overreached its power, which has resulted in the disproportionate focus on national issues and races. If this is reversed, she believes there will be a return to local issues.

“He (Tester) has an impact on whether we’re going to be able to continue to mine coal or pursue oil and gas, or graze on our federal lands,” she said. “We do pay attention to these national races simply because we have federalized more and more of our actual lives.”

Tester And Sheehy

Tester has had some tough reelection challenges before, but none as close as this race.

Sheehy, a former Navy Seal who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump, has recently pulled into a clear lead in the race, showing a 6 percentage point lead, according to an AARP poll released last week.

Tester is one of the Democratic Party’s last remaining red-state senators.

Montana is seen by many as a solidly Republican state, yet Tester has been representing it in the Senate since 2007 and was reelected twice.

Tester has long described himself a moderate or “blue dog” Democrat, but Lummis isn’t convinced, saying Tester is firmly aligned with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ policies.

“He’s in lockstep with Biden and Harris. His voting record is completely aligned with theirs,” Lummis said.

Tester voted with Biden 91% of the time during his time in office, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Yellowstone County GOP Chair Pam Purinton agrees and said people in Montana are waking up to Tester’s policies. She said Tester has made big promises throughout his tenure and used his farming background to connect with residents.

Tester has also attempted to separate himself from Biden at times and voted for legislation that some may see as conservative, such as a Southern border proposal brought earlier this year and last year’s Farm Bill.

But Purinton said when one looks closely at these bills, there are some concerning details, which she said is why Montana’s other senator, Republican Steve Daines, voted against them.

‘Two-Faced’ And ‘Shady’

Tester and Sheehy have been trading barbs along the campaign trail, like “two-faced Tester” and “Shady Sheehy.”

The Tester campaign has gone after Sheehy for not being a Montana native, having moved to the state in 2014 from Minnesota.

Purinton said this type of argument is starting to lose its luster as she estimates around 50% of the state’s residents didn’t grow up in Montana.

“When someone can choose to come to Montana and build three lucrative businesses, hiring veterans, hiring other people … that’s saying something,” she said. “Someone can be as liberal as they want and say, ‘I’m a fourth-generation Montanan,’ and we’ve got someone like that.”

Last week, offensive comments made by Sheehy surfaced, where he made derogatory remarks about Native Americans.

During a 2023 private fundraiser, Sheehy remarked that he went roping with members of the Crow Tribe one morning and that it was “a great way to bond with all the Indians while they’re drunk at 8 a.m. and you’re roping together.”

Tapping into the Native American vote will be a major factor for both campaigns.

“The Montana American Indian Caucus cannot express how let down we are by your remarks, where we can hear you disparaging the Crow Nation,” a letter by the Montana American Indian Caucus of the Montana Legislature sent to Sheehy’s office says, according to the Daily Montanan. “Your words perpetuate the damaging and racist stereotype of ‘the drunken Indian.’ This stereotype, and others like it, hurts our young people and contributes to limitation on their opportunity to succeed.”

Sheehy has not apologized for his remarks.

He was also sued in May after being accused of breach of contract by allegedly forcing two former employees to sell off stock that was part of their compensation package before a parent company sold it off for hundreds of millions of dollars and then took one of Sheehy’s company’s public in 2023.

Leo Wolfson can be reached at leo@cowboystatedaily.com.